10 Dates: One of which may Shake the World

 We have all heard so much about each candidate and their supporters in the closing days (garbage-Liz Cheney facing enemy fire-low October job numbers). As a history buff (nerd? rank amateur), I have assembled 10 dates prior to last week that may have determined this race.

TRUMP WINS

September 14, 2022: DeSantis sends 50 migrants mostly from Venezuela from Texas to Martha's Vineyard. As more migrants are sent to Northern cities, these cities are stressed for resources. Some residents of these cities resent the priority/special treatment that the local government is giving to the migrants. Thus begins an erosion of Democratic support amongst black and Latino voters. This effects urban centers in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and to a lesser extent Wisconsin. It also affects the narrative that the governors of Florida and Texas are just racists who hate people of color.

March 31, 2023: Trump is indicted in New York City on 34 counts of business fraud regarding his authorization of hush money payments to Stormy Daniels, an adult film actress and producer. This was first of many charges against Trump in this cycle to get Trump in a court room. Rather than be put off by the accusations against Trump, his supports rally to his defense. Trump explicitly makes the case that he and his supporters are victims of selective prosecution and abuse on June 9, 2023. "In the end, they're not coming after me. They're coming after you — and I'm just standing in their way,"

February 27, 2024: In the Michigan Democratic primary, Biden, although running unopposed, faced a 13% uncommitted movement. This movement spurred by progressive Arab-Americans reinforced the sobriquet, "Genocide Joe." This movement continued to spread in earnest on college campuses beginning in April 2024. The campus demonstrations fed the Trump the narrative that the elite universities were hot beds of anti-American and anti-Semitic sentiment. Further that DEI initiatives subverted the educational process and that the streets were out of control. This affected the Jewish vote...traditionally Democratic... the races on the margins in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin 

 A memorial to Stanford University students who fought in the Spanish-American war.

June 27, 2024: The Biden/Trump debate exposed Biden's age infirmities in speech and physical manner. 

Biden: And I’m going to continue to move until we get the total ban on the – the total initiative relative to what we’re going to do with more Border Patrol and more asylum officers.

TAPPER:  President Trump?

TRUMP:  I really don’t know what he said at the end of that sentence. I don’t think he knows what he said either.

This debate forced Biden out of the race and increased Trump's lead in the polls. While they polls have been back and forth, the perception remained that Harris and the Democrats covered up Biden's infirmity and can't be trusted to govern.  A runner up date in this category is April 25, 2023 when Biden announced his plan to run for re-election thereby stopping a legitimate Democratic primary and leaving Harris just over three month to run her campaign.

August 25, 2024: Kennedy drops out of the Presidential race. At the time these were the national polling numbers: 46% prefer Harris, 45% prefer Trump and 7% prefer Robert F. Kennedy Jr. That 7% moving to Trump helped shore up his support amongst disaffected voters including anti-Vaxxers, young single men, and the 'so-called' double haters who didn't like Trump or Biden (Harris). 

HARRIS WINS

January 6, 2021: The insurrection. On that day most American believed that Trump was unfit to serve as president. At the time, Americans disapproved of the protestors by a nearly 4 to 1 margin. While over time this sentiment has eroded, moderate Republicans and even Trump administration figures have decried both the riot and Trump's responsibility for it. This lingering stain moved the needle in the suburbs towards Harris.

June 24, 2022: Supreme Court overturns Roe V. Wade. After 50 years, the Supreme Court rules against the women's right to choose on a national level and turns abortion into a question for the states. This triggers total abortion bans in 13 states, partial bans in 28 others. Harris support for women's reproductive health is sincere and full throated and resonates with voters in a way that Biden could not.

July 21, 2024: Harris clears the field and gets the nearly unanimous Democratic nomination just 2 weeks later. Harris shows a political astuteness and savvy that impresses Democratic stakeholders and national media alike. She begins to shake her 2019 campaign image as a fire-breathing progressive to a center left Democrat broadening her appeal without losing Progressive support.

September 10, 2024: Trump/Harris debate. Harris began the spectacle by introducing herself to Trump a move that may have unnerved Trump. She further unnerved Trump as "she taunted him for his crowd sizes, his past bankruptcies, his inherited wealth and more. Mocking Trump’s stature on the global stage, Harris claimed that world leaders laugh at him — a barb aimed squarely at his personal insecurities." The most memorable line of the debate...'they're eating the dogs,' a false claim about Haitian migrants in Ohio. This cemented the image of Trump being unconcerned with the facts, overly emotional, and a racist.

October 3, 2024: Harris and Liz Cheney campaign together in Ripon, Wisconsin the birthplace on the Republican party in 1854. Tim Walz said of the event, '"I'm as surprised as anybody of this coalition that Kamala Harris has built, from Bernie Sanders to Dick Cheney to Taylor Swift and a whole bunch of folks in between there," Walz said. "They don't all agree on everything, but they are truly optimistic people. They believe in a positive future of this country, and one where our politics can be better than it is." This push especially for moderate suburban Republican women was the tipping point in the battle ground states.

Bob Dylan's Neighborhood Bully (1983 Redux) with Commentary

"Neighborhood Bully" is a deep cut from the 1983 Bob Dylan album, Infidels. Maybe Infidels itself is a deep cut. Although the album (vinyl and cassette) reached #20 on the US album charts (#6 in the England and #1 in Norway), the songs are not widely known outside of Dylan stans.

"Jokerman"

"Sweetheart Like You"

"Neighborhood Bully"

"License to Kill"

"Man of Peace"

"Union Sundown"

"I and I"

"Don't Fall Apart on Me Tonight"

Dylan himself doesn't seem to be a great fan of "Neighborhood Bully. Of the over 600 songs he has sung in concert (according to setlistfm), he has never played that song. (Corrections welcome!)

The tune was recorded on April 19, 1983 with overdubs on May 8 and May 10 features:

Bob Dylan – guitar, harmonica, keyboards, vocals, production

Alan Clark – keyboards

Sly Dunbar – drums, percussion

Mark Knopfler – guitar, production

Robbie Shakespeare – bass guitar

Mick Taylor – guitar

Here are some reviews and view of "Neighborhood Bully." 

The Music

1983  Rolling Stone wrote  "When Dylan cranks it up, the results are no less satisfying; Infidels‘ two fierce rockers are as wacked-out as “From a Buick Six” or “Tombstone Blues.” In “Neighborhood Bully,” Dylan sings with the fire he showed on Before the Flood, spitting out lyrics as Taylor and Knopfler duel in the foreground; Dylan’s neighborhood bully is an unappreciated crusader; he breaks up lynch mobs, disrupts bomb factories, yet “A license to kill him/Is given out to every maniac.”

The Lyrics 

2009 Tony Atwood: If you are going to do a political song, you don’t have to be balanced (no such song ever is), and your facts don’t have to be inclusive (ditto).   But you have to avoid lines which are just so incredibly wrong that they bring the whole song down and make those who don’t believe dismiss what you have said.

Think of “Times they are a Changing”. It brings us all together, and joins everyone. “Neighborhood Bully” just pushes people further apart.

 Review of the Review 

2017 Joost Nillissen : Approximately nine years ago Tony Attwood wrote a distasteful commentary on "Neighborhood Bully." I use the word ‘distasteful’ partly in jest, of course, as Mr Attwood claimed there was something distasteful about this song. Everybody is entitled to his or her opinion. “I do not agree with what you have to say, but I’ll defend to the death your right to say it.” (Somebody said that, I forgot who). (blogger note: attributed to Voltaire but not confirmed)

Review of Dylan's grasp of 'politics'

2020 Jochen Markhorst: Dylan has a rather private, simplistic conception of the meaning of the word “politics." He seems to think it means something like “being active for an official political party”. Already in 1965, in an English interview with Ray Coleman, he (Dylan) argues quite naively:

“No politics. It would be just impossible for me to stand up and be associated with any political party. They’re all crap – every single one of them is crap. They all think they are better than the next one."

In that light, Dylan’s commentary on the through and through political “Neighborhood Bully” is easier to grasp. Nonsensical, but still traceable within his own, simple-minded definition of “politics."

The punch line to the last three reviews  (all from the site Untold Dylan) is this footnote:

Following a range of comments about matters concerning Israel, I have decided to stop publishing comments on matters relating to Israel. I’ve published a fair number, and have only rejected the ones that are highly abusive towards myself.  But I don’t think any of the points change anyone’s mind or expand the debate any further, and so I think that’s enough.

If social media followed that model, it would be all cats and vacations (but not to Israel.)

Bob on the Mount of Olives, Jerusalem, 1983

Let's address Tony Atwood complaint about whether the "facts" of the song. 

It is a song and not a scholarly treatise on an incredibly complicated and emotional subject. It is also Bob Dylan who is not known for his scrupulous fact checking.

CLICK HERE FOR DYLAN'S RECORDING 

The lyrics with commentary

Well, the neighborhood bully, he's just one man

His enemies say he's on their land: TRUE

They got him outnumbered about a million to one / Complicated, as many enemies live in countries that have formal or informal agreements with Israel. Outside of Jordan and Egypt which recognize the existence of Israel, there are 7 entities in the immediate area that do not. Syria, Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and the Palestinian territories. The combined population of these countries is 250 million. Israel's population is 10 million. That is only 25 to 1. If you want to be ungenerous (and some people are) there are 1.8 billion followers of Islam who may be ill disposed toward Israel. That would still only be 250 to 1. So that is UNTRUE, technically.

He got no place to escape to, no place to run/ While scrolling on the site Threads where I saw a random post that included the slogan"From the River to the Sea." I asked what would happen to the Israelis. The random stranger suggested that those who have dual citizenship could return to those countries and the balance could be resettled in the United States.  Dylan is right about this one.

He's the neighborhood bully.

The neighborhood bully he just lives to survive

He's criticized and condemned for being alive TRUE.

He's not supposed to fight back, he's supposed to have thick skin This line can be seen as directed toward Israel's sometime allies.  It is the view that says Israel should not be proactive in it's desire for security. It speaks to proportionality in Israel's response. TRUE.

He's supposed to lay down and die when his door is kicked in

He's the neighborhood bully.

The neighborhood bully been driven out of every land / Not every land but many. Over 700,000 Jews left Arab countries after the 1948 Arab/Israeli war. I've attached a timeline of Jewish expulsions from Wikipedia listing which begins in 733 BCE to 2021. There are 85 listed from the grotesque in WW2 to the absurd (there is one Jew left in Yemen). There is also an anti-Semitic right wing meme  109/110. 109 referring to the numbers of countries that have expelled Jews and 110 being the aspirational hope of the Jews being expelled from the US.  MOSTLY TRUE

He's wandered the earth an exiled man

Seen his family scattered, his people hounded and torn

He's always on trial for just being born

He's the neighborhood bully.

Well, he knocked out a lynch mob, he was criticized

Old women condemned him, said he should apologize Really Bob...old women. That's the best you could do. /LAME 

Then he destroyed a bomb factory, nobody was glad: In 1981, the Israeli Air Force destroyed a nuclear reactor in Iraq. Iran attacked the same site in 1980./ MOSTLY TRUE. Some nations were glad.

The bombs were meant for him. He was supposed to feel bad

He's the neighborhood bully.

Well, the chances are against it, and the odds are slim

That he'll live by the rules that the world makes for him

'Cause there's a noose at his neck and a gun at his back /ALL TOO TRUE:  From 1971 to 1982, the Palestinian Liberation Organization moved their operations to Southern Lebanon and began ground attacks that culminated in the 1982 Lebanon war. Prior to that war, Israel fought in 1947, 1956, 1967 and 1973. Since then Israel fought in the following....

First Intifada (1987–1993) 

Second Intifada (2000–2005) 

2006 Lebanon War (summer 2006) 

Gaza War or Operation Cast Lead (December 2008 – January 2009) 

2012 Israeli operation in the Gaza Strip or Operation Pillar of Defense (November 2012) 

        2014 Gaza War or Operation Protective Edge (July–August 2014) 

2021 Israel–Palestine crisis or Operation Guardian of the Walls (May 2021) 

2023 Israel–Hamas war (October 2023- )

And a license to kill him is given out to every maniac /Terrorists, militants, freedom fighters...whatever the designation there is a license to kill Israelis. Some are maybe insane but most are aware of what they are doing. Sounds to me like a poor choice of words in service of a rhyme. NO DECISION.

He's the neighborhood bully.

Well, he got no allies to really speak of /The United States has been an ally since 1948. NOT TRUE

What he gets he must pay for, he don't get it out of love

He buys obsolete weapons and he won't be denied /Maybe in 1948 but since then Israel has benefited from advanced weapon systems. Especially Iron Dome (2011 -present) Too late for Bob's song but this statement was NOT TRUE in 1983.

But no one sends flesh and blood to fight by his side TRUE

He's the neighborhood bully.

Well, he's surrounded by pacifists who all want peace

They pray for it nightly that the bloodshed must cease

Now, they wouldn't hurt a fly. To hurt one they would weep  

They lay and they wait for this bully to fall asleep /This sequence implies that anti-war activists are a 5th column that seeks peace for the express purpose of lulling Israel into inaction. That may be a part of the Palestinian resistance but I doubt that the majority of peace activists have that as their mission. There are legitimately strong feelings toward the suffering caused by any war. NOT TRUE.

He's the neighborhood bully.

Every empire that's enslaved him is gone

Egypt and Rome, even the great Babylon /Maybe not every Empire....

He's made a garden of paradise in the desert sand  /Israel has been economically and successful since their independence. Paradise? Not so much. 

In bed with nobody, under no one's command

He's the neighborhood bully.

Now his holiest books have been trampled upon

No contract that he signed was worth that what it was written on /I will devote a blog post to Israel's history with "contracts,"agreements, truces and ceasefires with its neighbors, Europe, the US, China, Russia et al. Dylan's lyric is EXAGGERATED. While there is strong anti-Israeli sentiment in Egypt and Jordan, the peace treaties have held. Egypt since 1979 and Jordan since 1994. Whether that continues, especially in Jordan bears watching. There are over 2 million Palestinians in Jordan or nearly 20% of a population of 11 million. 

He took the crumbs of the world and he turned it into wealth

Took sickness and disease and he turned it into health

He's the neighborhood bully.

What's anybody indebted to him for?

Nothing, they say. He just likes to cause war /Israel may or not like to cause war but have been in wars nearly every 10 years since its founding. The WARS are REAL.

Pride and prejudice and superstition indeed /This is also a topic that I want to explore. Especially the degree to which religion especially literal readings of the Bible and the Koran make the internal politics of the Middle East especially fraught with intransigence. And the United States.

They wait for this bully like a dog waits for feed

He's the neighborhood bully.

What has he done to wear so many scars?/A question that has bedeviled Jews and non-Jews for millenia. The Jew has (and is being called), a Christ killer, a Prophet killer, a tool of the Capitalist class, a polluter of pure Aryan blood and more recently a Genocidal killer. 

Does he change the course of rivers? Does he pollute the moon and stars? 

Neighborhood bully, standing on the hill

Running out the clock, time standing still  In what is a gross exaggeration, I think that many Arabs in the region believe that the Israelis will go the way of the British, The Ottoman Empire, the Crusaders as part of the "shifting sands" of the regions. Many Israelis prior to October 7 wanted time to stand still. To be able to dance in the desert 3 miles for the Israeli/Gaza border. TIME WILL TELL.

Neighborhood bully.

Caryn's in Bolivia Again...reflections

 As long time fans no doubt know that I am interested in fictional bands celebrated in song.  

BTW, my top 5:

1. Uncle John's Band

2. Sultans of Swing

3. Sgt. Pepper's Lonely Hearts Club Band

4. Benny and the Jets

5. Alexander's Ragtime Band

This tune (CLICK HERE FOR THE SONG) celebrates a band with no name who is missing their lead singer. Similar to "We Lost Our Drummer in Guangzhou" the song also has some geographical and tourist information. Part of the Don's Basement mission is to educate as well as entertain. Also to take up time between lunch and dinner. 

As usual there is blatant plagiarism-- stealing a line from Deja Vu, a 1970 thing from C, S, N,Y, T &R

Joey....

When they asked him why it had to be that way, “Well,” he answered

“Just because”

As very astute...and very few fans will notice the use of The Blues Brothers and Animal from the Muppet Show in both Guangzhou and Bolivia. They are video gifts  (gifs) that keep on giving.

I followed a song structure from the Internet so you know it's valid.

For those who are heat challenged today, here is the forecast for La Paz this week.

Thanks for watching. Forward to a friend....

"Open Arms" explained and deconstructed or not

Carmelita is a beautiful song by Warren Zevon. Produced by Jackson Browne in 1976 with stellar back ups:  Glenn Frey and David Lindley both played guitar on this track and Frey added harmony vocals as well. Session stars Waddy Wachtel (guitar), Bob Glaub (bass) and Larry Zack (drums) also played on it.

The guy in this song has hit rock bottom. He's broke, strung out on heroin, cut off from Methadone and his lover Carmelita's welfare checks have run out. Zevon called it "a cheerful number about heroin, a substance with which, happily, I had only a brief flirtation and not a tragic love affair."

It has beautiful Spanish style guitar lines, a Desolation Row vibe and is clearly a picture of Zevon's 1970s LA. 

"And I'm there with her in Ensenada/And I'm here in Echo Park"

"Well I  pawned my Smith Corona/And I went to meet my man,                                                               He hangs out down on Alvarado Street/by the Pioneer Chicken Stand. 

Echo Park 1970s

Pioneer Chicken (on Alvarado St) 1962-1993

Family with dog, Echo Park, 2023

The song is too damn depressing...also impossible for me to play. Thanks Waddy. So it is not on my personal setlist.  

However, when thinking about what is happening on the Southern Border, this tune sounds appropriate.

My first approach was to use the Karaoke version of this song from Youtube. There is one video that has the lovely instrumental with the vocals taken out on the verse but you can hear Zevon's vocal on the chorus. So, the playing is all mine....

The title of the song comes from Chicago's initial reaction to the Texas governor busing migrants up here. Then Mayor Lori Lightfoot  called  Abbott, a “cheap politician” and “a man without any morals, humanity or shame”. She welcomed the 79 migrants with "open arms." 

Now that there are 8,000 migrants in Chicago, Lightfoot and new Mayor Brandon Johnson have called the situation a "crisis."

Mayor Johnson and former Mayor Lightfoot:
The long and short of it.

                             CLICK HERE FOR VIDEO OF OPEN ARMS

The video is in black and white because it has a definite 1960s folk club feel and sound despite its contemporary subject matter.

Open Arms 

There’s a crisis at the border of our hearts and mind,

We keep looking for answers that are hard to find.

Hearts and Minds is the title of a 1974 documentary about the Vietnam war. The title comes from a quote by Lyndon Johnson, "So, we must be ready to fight in Vietnam; but, the ultimate victory will depend upon the hearts and the minds - of the people who actually live out there."

My recollection of the title is a quote by Charles Colson? John Wayne? Teddy Roosevelt? "When You've got them by the balls, their hearts and minds will follow."

We want to welcome you with open arms, lay your burdens down

Can we all reach out as brothers and share our common ground?

Some politicians put on a show pleasing to their base

They’re not solving problems they’re just saving face.

I had difficulty with this line about the politicians. I added a modifier because not all officials are pandering on immigration. What is undeniable is that "the last extensive (immigration) package came under President Ronald Reagan in 1986, and President George H.W. Bush signed a more limited effort four years later." That is 33 years ago!

We want to welcome you with open arms, lay your burdens down

Can we all reach out as brothers and share our common ground?

Heard of a guy who talked about a shining city on a hill.

If we’re not climbing toward it, we’re just standing still.

Another inspiration by (or ripoff of) Dylan from his beautiful song, Red River Shore.

"Now I heard of a guy who lived a long time ago, a  man of sorrow and strife.                                  That if someone around him died and was dead/He knew how to bring 'em on back to life."

"The Shining City on a Hill" is a phrase attributed to John Winthrop (1587-1649) from a speech he made to his fellow Puritans in 1630. Political figures including JFK, Barack Obama, and most notably Ronald Reagan used the phrase in his farewell address in 1989." I've spoken of the shining city all my political life, but I don't know if I ever quite communicated what I saw when I said it. But in my mind it was a tall, proud city built on rocks stronger than oceans, wind-swept, God-blessed, and teeming with people of all kinds living in harmony and peace; a city with free ports that hummed with commerce and creativity."

We want to welcome you with open arms, lay your burdens down

Can we all reach out as human beings and share our common ground?

Thanks for reading, watching and listening.

FYI...Youtube recognized the melody!